台灣人看香港民主普選

The news on Saturday that Hong Kongers may be allowed to directly elect their chief executive by 2017 and lawmakers by 2020 has been greeted as a sign that Beijing would live up to the commitment it has made to allow the territory universal suffrage.

上星期六新聞報導北京答允香港可以2017年直選行政長官及2020年直選立法會議員,一般認為這是北京會履行答允香港進行全面普選承諾的信號。

But while some celebrated, others cried foul — and justifiably so.

但是有人歡喜有人愁,而愁的人不是沒有根據的。

The key word is "may," which means that the decision — if we can call it that — is anything but a promise. Rather, it leaves the door wide open for Beijing to renege on that statement, which it could do by citing threats to Hong Kong’s social stability or to its economic health and any number of reasons in between.

關鍵字眼是可以,意味著這項決議- 如果這可以稱為決議的話,根本不是一個許諾。實際上,這項決議正好敞開了大門讓北京可以影響香港的社會穩定或影響經濟發展以及無數其他有關的理由,推翻前言。

The last thing Beijing wants is to open the Pandora’s box of democracy, as yielding in Hong Kong would surely lead to demands from other provinces that, left unchecked, could spread across the country. Beijing is terrified of democracy because it knows that it is the one tool, short of civil war, that can threaten its hold on power.

北京最不想打開這潘多拉的民主之箱,向香港讓步肯定將引起其他中國省份的民主要求,一不小心,勢將席捲全國。北京對民主怕得要死,因為它知道除了進行內戰,只有民主可以威脅到它的權力基礎。

The remark on Saturday, with Chief Executive Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) waxing triumphantly, was probably meant to appease pro-democracy groups in Hong Kong, whose position was bolstered by former top official Anson Chan’s (陳方安生) win in the legislative elections last month. This is the upside: Give democrats a little space, wiggle a carrot and hope that this calms the masses. But the downside is that the stick is near, always at the ready.

曾蔭權在星期六的邀功談話可能只是想撫慰一下那些因港府前高官陳方安生上個月在立法會議員選舉中獲勝,而大為亢奮的香港民主團體。從好的一面看:給民主派一點空間,搖晃著一根胡蘿蔔希望可以安撫群眾。要是不行的話,棍子在近,而且隨時準備使用。

It would be pure foolishness to take Beijing’s declaration at face value, which, sadly, is what many in the international community will likely do. This is yet another sign, we can hear them saying, that Beijing is becoming more "normal" and playing by rules befitting a state that is integrating itself in the global scheme of things.

如果就此接受了北京宣言的表面說法是愚不可及的,可惜很多國際的團體可能會相信。我們會聽到他們說:這再一次表明了北京變得更正常,正如一個積極和國際接軌的國家那樣按規矩辦事。

One need only scratch the surface of Beijing’s promises, however, to find that they cannot be relied on. The accelerating pace of arrests of Chinese dissidents in the run-up to the Olympics — now only eight months away — should be enough to remind the gullible that Beijing uses promises more for short-term troubleshooting than for framing binding commitments.

只要撕開北京許諾的表面就知道這些許諾並不可靠。離奧運只有八個月,北京還在加緊逮捕國內的異見份子,這足以提醒那些天真的人們,北京只不過利用許諾來解決短期的問題而不是想履行那不可推卸的承諾。

The vow China made to ensure media freedoms in its bid for the Beijing Olympics, for example, was utilitarian and insincere. Beijing won the Games it desperately wanted and, once this was achieved, things returned to normal — including no one bothering to conceal the broken promises.

例如中國為取得北京奧運主辦權曾發誓保障新聞媒介自由,這不過是權宜之計及毫無誠意的。一旦極度渴望的奧運主辦權到手,一切便回復正常──甚至連遮掩一下它失信的舉措都不屑為。

All of which is enough to make Hong Kongers skeptical. If Beijing so easily breaks its promises to the international community, what prevents it from doing so within its borders?

以上種種都足以使香港人感到疑慮。如果北京那麼容易失信於國際社群,有什麼可以阻止它在自己國境內失信呢?

But China has time on its side. And as 2017 approaches, the rules of the game will change. Arguments for delays and further delays will pile up, as will demands for patience. The mere five-year delay will suddenly find itself lengthening, time will be bought and those who criticize Beijing will be portrayed once more as impatient and irresponsible troublemakers.

但是時間對中國有利。越接近2017,遊戲規則就會改變。越來越多的理由會打出來拖延普選,同時不斷要求公眾耐心等候。本來只有五年的推延突然延長,而那些批評北京的人將再被抹黑為沒有耐心和不負責任的麻煩製造者。

Democracy will remain just too dangerous a gift for the Chinese government to bestow upon its people.

中國政府會認為把民主當作禮物賜予人民實在是太危險了。

 

(From Taipei Times:http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2008/01/01/2003395181)

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大陸比較中肯的有關文章http://www.xici.net/b280603/d63595081.htm

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迴響

  • 淑敏  On 01/01/2008 at 10:31 下午

    …….

  • 淑敏  On 01/01/2008 at 10:38 下午

    我也相信, 中共在辦完 08奧運會後, 什麼都可以<反轉豬肚>
    Frank哥, 新年快樂, 晚安了!

  • 小耀  On 01/01/2008 at 11:09 下午

    選賢與能.讓人民.更民主化…

  • lady  On 01/01/2008 at 11:21 下午

    講到底……我對祖國無大信心….

  • 路人  On 02/01/2008 at 8:18 上午

    只有等, 只有期待.

  • Sam  On 03/01/2008 at 10:30 上午

    中華有幾千年歷史,衣家先由谷底爬番上泥,明未衰到衣家都成二千年………..不過中國人有度好,就係夠岸居, OQ高,個個都係Q字行先……大陸係向好啦,寶島反而有D負面,出年今日過左個奧運我地又睇下點??

  • Cc_Jackie  On 03/01/2008 at 7:40 下午

    乜吾系一國倆制咩???? 選舉哩D都要經過北京允許嘎????
     

  • Frank  On 03/01/2008 at 8:53 下午

    淑敏~無奈!
     
    耀~民主普選不一定能選出個好領導,但是就算選到個不好的,也無話可說…
     
    靚太宗妹、路人老弟~我堅信一黨獨裁不可能有真正的民主,就算是假民主,也將是個悠久的期待。
     
    OQ老弟~清朝康熙、乾隆時代(大約三百年前),中國都好威架。收尾畀D不肖子孫敗晒家咋。中外歷史教訓我地:經濟發達但冇民主基礎,最後一定衰落。
     
    長頸鹿Jj~梗係啦,都話“一國”在先,“兩制”在後囉。乜你唔知咩?

  • Sam  On 04/01/2008 at 10:51 上午

    三百年前美國立國,歐洲都玩左幾次大革命,就係康熙乾隆禁住冇革命之嘛…..如果唔係毛澤東幫中國泥一次反轉大革命,我地都未知衰架~~希望我地唔識用三百年先追番啦~~~~~~

  • Frank  On 04/01/2008 at 9:14 下午

    OQ老弟~反轉大革命?你意思係文化大革命?佢老人家將中國既傳統文化連根拔起,遺禍至今,實在不敢恭維。

  • Frank  On 04/01/2008 at 9:24 下午

    OQ老弟~請你重溫這場文革浩劫:http://youtube.com/watch?v=nZ0oSHQEk2A&feature=related

  • lady  On 04/01/2008 at 10:42 下午

    宗兄, 農曆年回美國大約何時回來啊? 藍亦可能來港, 文靜亦想網聚哦 ^^

  • Frank  On 05/01/2008 at 1:21 上午

    靚太宗妹~大約三月初回港。好想在去美國前同大家一聚。

  • Frank  On 05/01/2008 at 4:44 下午

    看看大陸網民怎樣看普選:

    来自 [天涯论坛]飞一样的爱情 2007-12-29 14:31:00 | 浏览原文

      惊闻2017年香港特首可以和我们村的“村委会”主任一样通过普选产生。   今天惊闻据香港媒体报道,香港特别行政区行政长官曾荫权,昨天(12日)向全国人大常委会提交了有关香港政制发展的报告。他在电视讲话中表示,在不迟于2017年先行落实普选行政长官,将会有较大机会获得大多数人接纳。   他指出,报告中提请人大常委会确定对2012年行政长官和立法会的产生办法进行修改。在民意调查中反映过半数市民期望在2012年先行落实普选行政长官,这意愿应受到重视和予以考虑。   其实我们村在90十年代就已经实现了直选了,如今俺已经参加了十几次我们村最高行政机构的选举,我现在每年都盼望村里选举啊,每当这个时候那些村里的高干们都会上我的家里来,给我们送上各种生活用品和人民币,而且各个候选人都会搞一些宣传活动,一般都是在酒店和洗浴中心进行,宣传活动在推杯换盏和娱乐活动中愉快的进行,要不说民主就是好啊。   热烈支持香港特首普选。   热烈支持香港特首普选。   感谢CCTV, Channel V, HDTV, KTV,感谢赵薇  感谢CCTV, Channel V, HDTV, KTV,感谢赵薇  感谢CCTV, Channel V, HDTV, KTV,感谢赵薇
     
    (來自:http://www.onejoo.com/story/106801/)

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